Showing posts with label Paul Krugman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Paul Krugman. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

We Love A Conspiracy

Everyone is now aware of the claims that the Russians (i.e. the Kremlin under Valdimar Putin) supposedly attempted to influence the 2016 U.S. Presidential election in favor of Donald Trump.

'The Washington Post' reported on this back in June of 2016, in this story entitled 'Russian government hackers penetrated DNC, stole opposition research on Trump'
     https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russian-government-hackers-penetrated-dnc-stole-..._story.html

And here is a later story from 'The Washington Post', dated December 9, 2016, entitled 'Secret CIA assessment says Russia was trying to help Trump win White House'
     https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-orders-review-of-russian-hacking-..._story.html

But notice this paragraph from the later story, explicitly acknowledging that a connection could not be made to the Russian government — in direct contradiction to the titles of both 'Washington Post' stories

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-orders-review-of-russian-hacking-..._story.html
...
The CIA presentation to senators about Russia’s intentions fell short of a formal U.S. assessment produced by all 17 intelligence agencies.  A senior U.S. official said there were minor disagreements among intelligence officials about the agency’s assessment, in part because some questions remain unanswered.

For example, intelligence agencies do not have specific intelligence showing officials in the Kremlin “directing” the identified individuals to pass the Democratic emails to WikiLeaks, a second senior U.S. official said.  Those actors, according to the official, were “one step” removed from the Russian government, rather than government employees.  Moscow has in the past used middlemen to participate in sensitive intelligence operations so it has plausible deniability.
...


So it needs to be repeated — 'The Washington Post' openly acknowledges that they have nothing to prove their basic claim that the Russian government attempted to manipulate the 2016 U.S. Presidential election, but they make that assertion anyway — it is a conspiracy theory, and the 'Washington Post' just expects its readers to believe it.

Here is an article by Glenn Greenwald, dated December 10, 2016, entitled 'Anonymous Leaks to the WashPost About the CIA’s Russia Beliefs Are No Substitute for Evidence', where he attacks 'The Washington Post' article quoted above —

https://theintercept.com/2016/12/10/...leaks-to-the-washpost-about-the-cias-russia-beliefs-are-no-substitute-for-evidence/
THE WASHINGTON POST late Friday night published an explosive story that, in many ways, is classic American journalism of the worst sort: The key claims are based exclusively on the unverified assertions of anonymous officials, who in turn are disseminating their own claims about what the CIA purportedly believes, all based on evidence that remains completely secret.
...
Needless to say, Democrats — still eager to make sense of their election loss and to find causes for it other than themselves — immediately declared these anonymous claims about what the CIA believes to be true, and, with a somewhat sweet, religious-type faith, treated these anonymous assertions as proof of what they wanted to believe all along: that Vladimir Putin was rooting for Donald Trump to win and Hillary Clinton to lose and used nefarious means to ensure that outcome.  That Democrats are now venerating unverified, anonymous CIA leaks as sacred is par for the course for them this year, but it’s also a good indication of how confused and lost U.S. political culture has become in the wake of Trump’s victory. ...


And here is an article at 'Esquire', dated October 20, 2016, entitled 'How Russia Pulled Off the Biggest Election Hack in U.S. History'.  Notice that not a single thing in this article is documented, including a claim that the Russians "even hacked satellites to cover their tracks"
     http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a49791/russian-dnc-emails-hacked/

Other than as an exercise in testing your credulity, that article is not worth reading, but here are just a couple of quotes to demonstrate that point —

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a49791/russian-dnc-emails-hacked/
https://archive.is/SemNi
...
The most effective outlet by far, however, was WikiLeaks.  Russian intelligence likely began feeding hacked documents to Julian Assange's "whistleblower" site in June 2015, after breaching Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry.  A group called WikiSaudiLeaks, probably a Guccifer-like front for Fancy Bear, claimed that "WikiLeaks have been given access to some part of these documents."  The so-called Saudi Cables showed princes buying influence and monitoring dissidents.  They became a major news story, proving that the old methods worked even better in the twenty-first century.
...


Notice the uses of the words 'likely' and 'probably' in the quote above.  Should we thank the author for his honesty in at least not pretending that he had real knowledge that what he wrote is true?  It would have been more honest, if he had begun that paragraph with: "I'm going to make some stuff up here, because I want to ..."

And for one more example, consider this quote from the same 'Esquire' article —

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a49791/russian-dnc-emails-hacked/
https://archive.is/SemNi
...
Using cloud services such as OneDrive was a clever but risky move—it was a little like taking the bus to make off with stolen goods from a burglary.  Though the widespread use of the services by legitimate users offered a degree of cover for the hackers, data provided by Microsoft also helped America's elite digital spies identify the DNC intruders "with confidence" as Russian.  It is even possible that the U. S. government has been able to identify the names and personal details of individual operators.  The Russians knew they'd been caught.  On July 30, an FSB press release announced that twenty government and defense organizations had been hit by high-powered spying tools.
...


I assume the link below is the FSB (i.e. the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation) press release the author is talking about, but how on earth does it prove "the Russians knew they'd been caught", as the author wrote in the quote above?   It took some digging to find the memo, since the author did not provide a link to it, and it is in Russian, so the author had to translate it to make use of it at all (maybe the author reads Russian, and just neglected to point that out) —
     https://archive.is/sNSWu
     http://www.fsb.ru/fsb/press/message/single.htm%21id%3D10437870%40fsbMessage.html
     https://www.scmagazineuk.com/fsb-spotted-malware-on-20-government-org-networks/article/529964/

Here is the Google translation — for what it is worth — I cannot attest to its accuracy, since I do not read Russian.  In any case, the only thing this translation of the press release indicates is what it contains — that the Russians believe they were targeted by professionals, and that the attack was similar to operations 'previously identified'.  Anything else is conjecture —

FSB press release from July 30, 2016, regarding cyber espionage.
FSB press release from July 30, 2016, regarding cyber espionage.


Here is a tweet from the author of the article at 'Esquire' quoted above, in response to skeptics who think that those making this accusation of a supposed 'Russian Connection' should provide proof, as opposed to their speculations —

https://twitter.com/RidT/status/810114356797210624
http://archive.vn/Sszch
Thomas Rid tweet from December 17, 2016.


Notice the tweet that the author is responding to demands that critical readers prove a negative.  This is a common fallacy where one attempts to shift the burden of proof in order to avoid their own responsibility for providing evidence and proof when making an accusation.  The individual making the assertion has the burden of proof, since, strictly speaking, it is impossible to prove a claim cannot be true.

How would you prove that no reindeer can fly, for example?   Dropping as many reindeer as you could catch out of an airplane only proves that those you dropped could not fly — it does not prove that no reindeer can fly.  In short, there is no end to the claims that must be believed, if we could only eliminate those claims that we must prove are false.  Did I tell you about my aunt who lives on Pluto, and survives on Limburger cheese?   Oh, I can't prove she exists, but we communicate via mental telepathy.  What evidence do you have to prove my claim is false?

Thomas Rid is correct in the tweet above — "The burden of proof is inversing."  It is just that he is the one who is attempting to 'inverse' it.  He is responsible for proving his speculations, and no one should believe them until he has done so — readers have no obligation to prove his claims are false —
     http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/burden-of-proof.html
     https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFallacies/145/Proving-Non-Existence

Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, has repeatedly denied that Russia had any hand in the leaks that were damaging to the Clinton campaign.  Here is Assange in an interview denying that accusation —



And here is Assange's statement regarding the 2016 U.S. Election on wikileaks.org

https://wikileaks.org/Assange-Statement-on-the-US-Election.html
https://archive.is/Z7uTQ

Assange Statement on the US Election

8 November 2016
By Julian Assange

In recent months, WikiLeaks and I personally have come under enormous pressure to stop publishing what the Clinton campaign says about itself to itself.  That pressure has come from the campaign’s allies, including the Obama administration, and from liberals who are anxious about who will be elected US President.

On the eve of the election, it is important to restate why we have published what we have.

The right to receive and impart true information is the guiding principle of WikiLeaks – an organization that has a staff and organizational mission far beyond myself. Our organization defends the public’s right to be informed.

This is why, irrespective of the outcome of the 2016 US Presidential election, the real victor is the US public which is better informed as a result of our work.

The US public has thoroughly engaged with WikiLeaks’ election related publications which number more than one hundred thousand documents.  Millions of Americans have pored over the leaks and passed on their citations to each other and to us.  It is an open model of journalism that gatekeepers are uncomfortable with, but which is perfectly harmonious with the First Amendment.

We publish material given to us if it is of political, diplomatic, historical or ethical importance and which has not been published elsewhere.  When we have material that fulfills this criteria, we publish.  We had information that fit our editorial criteria which related to the Sanders and Clinton campaign (DNC Leaks) and the Clinton political campaign and Foundation (Podesta Emails).  No-one disputes the public importance of these publications.  It would be unconscionable for WikiLeaks to withhold such an archive from the public during an election.

At the same time, we cannot publish what we do not have.  To date, we have not received information on Donald Trump’s campaign, or Jill Stein’s campaign, or Gary Johnson’s campaign or any of the other candidates that fufills our stated editorial criteria.  As a result of publishing Clinton’s cables and indexing her emails we are seen as domain experts on Clinton archives.  So it is natural that Clinton sources come to us.

We publish as fast as our resources will allow and as fast as the public can absorb it.

That is our commitment to ourselves, to our sources, and to the public.

This is not due to a personal desire to influence the outcome of the election. The Democratic and Republican candidates have both expressed hostility towards whistleblowers. I spoke at the launch of the campaign for Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, because her platform addresses the need to protect them. This is an issue that is close to my heart because of the Obama administration’s inhuman and degrading treatment of one of our alleged sources, Chelsea Manning. But WikiLeaks publications are not an attempt to get Jill Stein elected or to take revenge over Ms Manning’s treatment either.
Publishing is what we do. To withhold the publication of such information until after the election would have been to favour one of the candidates above the public’s right to know.

This is after all what happened when the New York Times withheld evidence of illegal mass surveillance of the US population for a year until after the 2004 election, denying the public a critical understanding of the incumbent president George W Bush, which probably secured his reelection.  The current editor of the New York Times has distanced himself from that decision and rightly so.

The US public defends free speech more passionately, but the First Amendment only truly lives through its repeated exercise. The First Amendment explicitly prevents the executive from attempting to restrict anyone’s ability to speak and publish freely.  The First Amendment does not privilege old media, with its corporate advertisers and dependencies on incumbent power factions, over WikiLeaks’ model of scientific journalism or an individual’s decision to inform their friends on social media. The First Amendment unapologetically nurtures the democratization of knowledge. With the Internet, it has reached its full potential.

Yet, some weeks ago, in a tactic reminiscent of Senator McCarthy and the red scare, Wikileaks, Green Party candidate Stein, Glenn Greenwald and Clinton’s main opponent were painted with a broad, red brush.  The Clinton campaign, when they were not spreading obvious untruths, pointed to unnamed sources or to speculative and vague statements from the intelligence community to suggest a nefarious allegiance with Russia.  The campaign was unable to invoke evidence about our publications—because none exists.

In the end, those who have attempted to malign our groundbreaking work over the past four months seek to inhibit public understanding perhaps because it is embarrassing to them – a reason for censorship the First Amendment cannot tolerate. Only unsuccessfully do they try to claim that our publications are inaccurate.
...


Those who believe that Assange has a special penchant for attacking Democrats have a short memory.  It was routine for Republicans to call for his execution after the leaks regarding the Iraq war in 2010 —
     https://collateralmurder.wikileaks.org/
     http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8172916/WikiLeaks-guilty-parties-should-face-death-penalty.html
     http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/12/the-shameful-attacks-on-julian-assange/67440/

But the real problem here, is that none of this 'Russian Connection' conspiracy makes any sense.

Would the Russians really go to all this trouble to help Donald Trump?   Why?

Because Hillary Clinton seemed more hawkish toward Russia than Trump in their public statements prior to the election?   If this is what people believe, again, it is just more unsubstantiated speculation.  And it is only barely plausible, because it is too vague to be taken seriously.   Could it be true?   Maybe, but no one knows, and certainly no one can prove it is true.

But even if this were true, how did the Russians supposedly help Trump?   By revealing corruption within the competing political party, by releasing their private correspondence to the public.  So it was revealed that the Democratic Party is corrupt, and supporters want to pretend that that corruption does not matter, because someone stole their correspondence.   Oh brother.   Are Republicans similarly corrupt?  Maybe.  But even if so, how would that absolve the Democrats?

This attempt to avoid responsibility by Democrats is just further proof of Democratic corruption.  What matters is the authenticity of the damning communications that were released, and no one has disputed that.

Here is more on the absurdity of all this from Matt Welch and Nick Gillespie at reason.com
     https://reason.com/blog/2016/12/12/did-russia-really-hack-the-election
     https://reason.com/blog/2016/12/12/cia-and-fbi-should-make-public-evidence

And of course, it is no surprise that Paul Krugman would run with this unsubstantiated story.  Here is the 'Contra Krugman' podcast with Tom Woods and Robert Murphy, tearing apart another of Paul Krugman's asinine columns —
     http://contrakrugman.com/ep-65-did-the-russians-hack-the-election/

Saturday, September 10, 2016

Paul Krugman and Hillary Clinton: Birds Of A Feather

Here are some example blog posts regarding Paul Krugman's incompetence as an economist, and his lack of character —
     https://www.google.com/search?q=paul+krugman+site%3Amaxautonomy.blogspot.com

To anyone who has made a reasonable effort to educate themselves about economic conditions around the world, and especially over time, Paul Krugman's opinion pieces are blatantly absurd and completely unoriginal.  After all, regarding economic problems, he simply repeats the basic Keynesian formula over and over — demand is too low, and so government must increase spending.

See Krugman's praise of WW II, for example, where he attempts to pretend that the massive expenditures of the U.S. Government in preparation for the war, and the massive destruction that followed, supposedly made everyone better off
     http://maxautonomy.blogspot.com/2014/09/oh-what-ugly-paul-krugman.html

And take note that Krugman conveniently dismisses the rationing that had to be enforced by the U.S. Government well after the massive stimulus for WW II began, as if that rationing was simply a necessary byproduct of the war effort.   Krugman completely blanks out the inconvenient fact that the rationing that was introduced as a result of the massive spending to support the war effort stands in direct contradiction to his repeated claims that any government spending improves economic conditions by 'stimulating demand' — both Krugman and Keynesians in general insist that any government spending improves economic conditions and makes us all better off.

If you believe that Krugman puts some kind of qualification on the kinds of government spending that are actually helpful, you are wrong.  See him speaking here, where he explicitly insists that a massive government spending program does not need to be useful to be helpful.   Yes, really, according to the Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman, even government waste is good
     http://maxautonomy.blogspot.com/2015/06/krugmans-obviously-false-debt-spin.html

So, no one should be surprised that a corrupt academic like Paul Krugman would come to the defense of a corrupt politician like Hillary Clinton.  If it is true that Hillary Clinton has no character issues, how on earth would Paul Krugman be able to tell?
     http://maxautonomy.blogspot.com/2016/08/lying-about-hillary-clintons-lies.html



...
Meanwhile, we have the presumption that anything Hillary Clinton does must be corrupt, most spectacularly illustrated by the increasingly bizarre coverage of the Clinton Foundation.

Step back for a moment, and think about what that foundation is about. When Bill Clinton left office, he was a popular, globally respected figure.  What should he have done with that reputation? Raising large sums for a charity that saves the lives of poor children sounds like a pretty reasonable, virtuous course of action.  And the Clinton Foundation is, by all accounts, a big force for good in the world. For example, Charity Watch, an independent watchdog, gives it an “A” rating — better than the American Red Cross.

Now, any operation that raises and spends billions of dollars creates the potential for conflicts of interest.  You could imagine the Clintons using the foundation as a slush fund to reward their friends, or, alternatively, Mrs. Clinton using her positions in public office to reward donors.  So it was right and appropriate to investigate the foundation’s operations to see if there were any improper quid pro quos.  As reporters like to say, the sheer size of the foundation “raises questions.”

But nobody seems willing to accept the answers to those questions, which are, very clearly, “no.”

Consider the big Associated Press report suggesting that Mrs. Clinton’s meetings with foundation donors while secretary of state indicate “her possible ethics challenges if elected president.”  Given the tone of the report, you might have expected to read about meetings with, say, brutal foreign dictators or corporate fat cats facing indictment, followed by questionable actions on their behalf.

But the prime example The A.P. actually offered was of Mrs. Clinton meeting with Muhammad Yunus, a winner of the Nobel Peace Prize who also happens to be a longtime personal friend.  If that was the best the investigation could come up with, there was nothing there.

So I would urge journalists to ask whether they are reporting facts or simply engaging in innuendo, and urge the public to read with a critical eye.  If reports about a candidate talk about how something “raises questions,” creates “shadows,” or anything similar, be aware that these are all too often weasel words used to create the impression of wrongdoing out of thin air.

And here’s a pro tip: the best ways to judge a candidate’s character are to look at what he or she has actually done, and what policies he or she is proposing. Mr. Trump’s record of bilking students, stiffing contractors and more is a good indicator of how he’d act as president; Mrs. Clinton’s speaking style and body language aren’t.  George W. Bush’s policy lies gave me a much better handle on who he was than all the up-close-and-personal reporting of 2000, and the contrast between Mr. Trump’s policy incoherence and Mrs. Clinton’s carefulness speaks volumes today.

In other words, focus on the facts. America and the world can’t afford another election tipped by innuendo.



Krugman offers this recommendation in the piece referenced above —
" ... So I would urge journalists to ask whether they are reporting facts or simply engaging in innuendo, and urge the public to read with a critical eye.  If reports about a candidate talk about how something “raises questions,” creates “shadows,” or anything similar, be aware that these are all too often weasel words used to create the impression of wrongdoing out of thin air. ..."
Krugman's recommendation is pure comedy given his own fetish for using 'weasel words'
     http://maxautonomy.blogspot.com/2014/09/krugman-attempts-defense-of-bad-writing.html

If you are at all sympathetic to Krugman's point of view, you might try actually following part of his advice, and 'read with a critical eye' — you should begin with Krugman's own writings.

Consider Krugman's mocking comment regarding this Associated Press report
     http://www.bigstory.ap.org/article/82df550e1ec646098b434f7d5771f625/many-donors-clinton-foundation-met-her-state
     http://archive.is/nrmXK
"... Consider the big Associated Press report suggesting that Mrs. Clinton’s meetings with foundation donors while secretary of state indicate “her possible ethics challenges if elected president.”   Given the tone of the report, you might have expected to read about meetings with, say, brutal foreign dictators or corporate fat cats facing indictment, followed by questionable actions on their behalf. ..."
Well, there is plenty of evidence to indicate that Hillary Clinton did much worse than just have 'meetings with, say, brutal foreign dictators', as Paul Krugman derisively joked in dismissing the Associated Press report.   Notice that during Hillary Clinton's term as Secretary of State there were massive increases in arms sales to authoritarian regimes who donated to the Clinton Foundation — regimes that were simultaneously being criticized by the U.S. Government.   Pity, Paul Krugman cannot seem to recognize those 'questionable actions' (surprise).

Included below is page three from the 'Historical Facts Book of September 2013', from the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, showing large jumps in arms sales to Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates, in 2012 under Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.  These countries, among others, all donated to the Clinton Foundation —


...
Under Clinton's leadership, the State Department approved $165 billion worth of commercial arms sales to 20 nations whose governments have given money to the Clinton Foundation, according to an IBTimes analysis of State Department and foundation data.  That figure -- derived from the three full fiscal years of Clinton’s term as Secretary of State (from October 2010 to September 2012) -- represented nearly double the value of American arms sales made to the those countries and approved by the State Department during the same period of President George W. Bush’s second term.

The Clinton-led State Department also authorized $151 billion of separate Pentagon-brokered deals for 16 of the countries that donated to the Clinton Foundation, resulting in a 143 percent increase in completed sales to those nations over the same time frame during the Bush administration.  These extra sales were part of a broad increase in American military exports that accompanied Obama’s arrival in the White House.  The 143 percent increase in U.S. arms sales to Clinton Foundation donors compares to an 80 percent increase in such sales to all countries over the same time period.

American defense contractors also donated to the Clinton Foundation while Hillary Clinton was secretary of state and in some cases made personal payments to Bill Clinton for speaking engagements.  Such firms and their subsidiaries were listed as contractors in $163 billion worth of Pentagon-negotiated deals that were authorized by the Clinton State Department between 2009 and 2012.

The State Department formally approved these arms sales even as many of the deals enhanced the military power of countries ruled by authoritarian regimes whose human rights abuses had been criticized by the department.  Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Qatar all donated to the Clinton Foundation and also gained State Department clearance to buy caches of American-made weapons even as the department singled them out for a range of alleged ills, from corruption to restrictions on civil liberties to violent crackdowns against political opponents.

As secretary of state, Hillary Clinton also accused some of these countries of failing to marshal a serious and sustained campaign to confront terrorism.  In a December 2009 State Department cable published by Wikileaks, Clinton complained of “an ongoing challenge to persuade Saudi officials to treat terrorist financing emanating from Saudi Arabia as a strategic priority.”  She declared that “Qatar's overall level of CT cooperation with the U.S. is considered the worst in the region.”  She said the Kuwaiti government was “less inclined to take action against Kuwait-based financiers and facilitators plotting attacks.”  She noted that “UAE-based donors have provided financial support to a variety of terrorist groups.”  All of these countries donated to the Clinton Foundation and received increased weapons export authorizations from the Clinton-run State Department.

Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign and the Clinton Foundation did not respond to questions from the IBTimes.

In all, governments and corporations involved in the arms deals approved by Clinton’s State Department have delivered between $54 million and $141 million to the Clinton Foundation as well as hundreds of thousands of dollars in payments to the Clinton family, according to foundation and State Department records.  The Clinton Foundation publishes only a rough range of individual contributors’ donations, making a more precise accounting impossible.
...


As always, Paul Krugman panders to his dull ignorant readers.  Notice this positive comment from Reed Scherer, in response to Krugman's piece 'Hillary Gets Gored', shown in the image of Krugman's piece above —
"... Hillary is flawed (who isn't?) and has made mistakes (who hasn't?) but there is zero evidence that she is "crooked."   Her knowledge and skills are uniquely impressive in American history. ..."
I guess Reed is having a little trouble following Krugman's advice to 'read with a critical eye'.   Reed is in good company, since he fits in well with the many other Krugman sycophants —
     http://maxautonomy.blogspot.com/2016/01/paul-krugman-and-his-cadre-of-idiot-sycophants.html

And as is typical of much of what Krugman writes and says, his defense of Hillary here is absurd on its face.  If the Clinton's wanted to do charitable work, why wouldn't they simply work for any of a number of other charities doing similar work, and which they do not control, to make any conflict of interest impossible.  Do you think that maybe, the whole point was that they wanted control, so they could benefit directly?   Are the Clintons better than, say, 'Bill and Melinda Gates' at doing charitable work, or, say, 'Doctors Without Borders'?  Your answer to that question reflects on your own honesty —
     http://charlesortel.com/
     http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-07/clinton-foundation-charity-fraud-epic-proportions-analyst-charges-...
     http://archive.is/YwOre

Thankfully, others among the American public are not as confused about Hillary's track record of corruption as Paul Krugman and Reed Scherer.   Both Hillary and Trump have set new records for disapproval in opinion polls —



Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Paul Krugman And His Cadre Of Idiot Sycophants

Paul Krugman has written blog posts and opinion pieces ad nauseam which urge increased government spending, as well as commenting on the positive or negative economic effects of a particular U.S. President's policies.  Despite his glaring public record of equating various economic outcomes with a sitting U.S. President, Paul Krugman has now claimed that only conservatives believe that presidents have a large effect on economic performance.

Yes, really.   Now according to Krugman, in direct contradiction to much of his past writing, the widespread belief that the President of the United States has a significant effect on the U.S. economy, is really a belief that only conservatives hold.

Here is one example opinion piece from Krugman in December of 2014, about what he calls 'Obamanomics', and its supposed positive effects on the U.S. economy --

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/29/opinion/paul-krugman-the-obama-recovery.html

The Obama Recovery
Paul Krugman   DEC. 28, 2014
...
What’s the important lesson from this late Obama bounce?  Mainly, I’d suggest, that everything you’ve heard about President Obama’s economic policies is wrong.
...

This story line never made much sense.  The truth is that the private sector has done surprisingly well under Mr. Obama, adding 6.7 million jobs since he took office, compared with just 3.1 million at this point under President George W. Bush. Corporate profits have soared, as have stock prices.  What held us back was unprecedented public-sector austerity: At this point in the Bush years, government employment was up by 1.2 million, but under Mr. Obama it’s down by 600,000. Sure enough, now that this de facto austerity is easing, the economy is perking up.

And what this bounce tells you is that the alleged faults of Obamanomics had nothing to do with the pain we were feeling.  We weren’t hurting because we were sick; we were hurting because we kept hitting ourselves with that baseball bat, and we’re feeling a lot better now that we’ve stopped.
...

So I’m fairly optimistic about 2015, and probably beyond, as long as we avoid any more self-inflicted damage.  Let’s just leave that baseball bat lying on the ground, O.K.?
...


As an aside, this is also another example of Krugman's own behavior providing a perfect example of the criticism he is making — in his hypocrisy, he often demonstrates his own accusation.  In the opinion piece quoted above, he describes bad economic consequences as self-inflicted damage.  That is, like 'hitting yourself in the head, repeatedly, with a baseball bat.'   He writes that we should avoid self-inflicted damage, while at the same he is an ardent defender of the absurd notion that there is an upside to the death and destruction of the ultimate 'baseball bat to the head', a World War —
      http://maxautonomy.blogspot.com/2014/09/oh-what-ugly-paul-krugman.html

But notice that it is completely nonsensical to name a supposed economic recovery after a sitting U.S. President, as Krugman did in the opinion piece quoted above, if you do not believe that President had an important responsibility in creating that economic event.

As a demonstration of the widespread belief beyond Krugman, that U.S. Presidents have a significant effect on the U.S. economy (whether right or wrong), consider this quote from the Wikipedia page on 'Jobs created during U.S. presidential terms', describing the many references made to a sitting President's supposed ability to 'create jobs' --

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_created_during_U.S._presidential_terms
Politicians and pundits frequently refer to the ability of the President of the United States to "create jobs" in the U.S. during his or her term in office. [1]
...


Or consider the expression 'Hooverville', which was the name used for the many shantytowns built during the Great Depression of the 1930's.  This name was deliberately chosen to mock the 31st President of the United States, Herbert Hoover, since so many people viewed Hoover as responsible for the Depression.  And do not forget that Hoover was a Republican, which means that Democrats (i.e. non-conservatives) believed the President's policies were critical

Homeless shantytown known as Hoovervile, Seattle, Washington, June 10, 1937
Homeless shantytown known as Hooverville, near the Skinner and Eddy Shipyards, Seattle, Washington, June 10, 1937
Anti-Hoover Campaign Poster Worn By Roosevelt Supporters in the 1930's
Anti-Hoover Campaign Poster Worn By Roosevelt Supporters in the 1930's

And for good measure, here is another blog post by Krugman, equating private employment changes with the sitting U.S. President's economic policies — this one-line post is fascinating in its deception (more about that later) --

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/12/27/obama-the-job-killer

Obama The Job-Killer
Paul Krugman   DECEMBER 27, 2015 2:43 PM
Cumulative change in private employment under Bush and Obama

Given the GOP field’s collective decision to go for Bushonomics squared, it seemed like a good time to update this chart.



Now notice that Krugman wrote the post quoted below, where he insists that only conservatives believe that presidents have a large effect on economic performance, only 3 days after the blog post above where he equated changes in private employment with the two presidents in office during those two time periods.

And even more, notice that Krugman claims that since 2010, the White House has had 'little influence' on the economy, because 'fiscal policy has been paralyzed by GOP obstruction'.  So the U.S. President can have a large effect on the economy, but only when a majority of Congress do not disagree and block the President's proposed actions.

Ponder that for a moment — if that damn GOP would stop pretending that the President has an effect on economic performance, and just let him do what he wants, then the President would have an effect on economic performance.

Brilliant Dr. Krugman! --

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/12/30/presidents-and-the-economy/#permid=17088120

Presidents and the Economy
Paul Krugman   DECEMBER 30, 2015 9:49 AM
Average Federal Tax Rates, by Before-Tax Income Group, 1979 to 2011
Congressional Budget Office

After I put up my post comparing private-sector jobs under Obama and Bush, a number of people asked me whether I believe that presidents have a large effect on economic performance.  My answer is no — but conservatives believe that they do, which is why this kind of comparison is useful.

To expand on my own views, in normal times the economy’s macroeconomic performance mainly depends on monetary policy, which isn’t under White House control.  Now, we’ve been in a liquidity trap for the whole Obama administration so far, giving fiscal policy a much more central role — and the initial stimulus did help quite a lot.  Since 2010, however, fiscal policy has been paralyzed by GOP obstruction, so we’re back to a situation where the WH has little influence.

The point, however, is that the right has insisted non-stop that Obama was doing terrible things to the economy — that health reform was a job-killer (one of the dozens of House votes repealing Obamacare was called the Repealing the Job-Killing Health Care Law Act.)  The tax hike on the top 1 percent in 2013 was also supposed to destroy the economy (much as the same people predicted disaster from the Clinton hike 20 years earlier.)  Financial reform was similarly supposed to be hugely destructive.  And there was constant invocation of the “Ma, he’s looking at me funny” doctrine — the claim that Obama, by not praising businessmen sufficiently, was scaring away the confidence fairy.

Given all that, the fact that the private sector has added more than twice as many jobs under that job-killing Obama as it did under pre-crisis Bush is important, not because Obama did it, but because it shows that there is no hint that the important things he did do had any negative effect at all, let alone the terrible effects right-wingers predicted.  You can, it turns out, tax the rich, regulate the banks, and expand health insurance coverage without punishment by the invisible hand.



A number of Krugman's readers commented on the post quoted above, to point out that Krugman's statements in the post are obviously false, but other readers normally responded to those critical comments in disagreement.   I was especially amused by the two responses below, where after one reader pointed out the absurdity of Krugman's statements, another responded in perfect Krugman fashion, by attempting to dissemble the obvious contradictions in Krugman's statements.

Notice that 'C' in the second comment below, seems to believe that it is meaningful to compare economic outcomes under different presidents, when you are convinced those presidents do not have a large effect on the economy.   So, why would anyone compare any outcomes under two different presidents, for which those presidents were not responsible? --

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/12/30/presidents-and-the-economy/#permid=17088120

Comment to Krugman's 'Presidents and the Economy', December 2015


Of course, the comment above by 'C' in response to 'Maitland' is absurd on its face.  It makes absolutely no sense to discuss economic events under any presidential term, if you really are convinced that sitting presidents are not important to the country's economic performance.  This is why you will not find articles, say, regarding the head of the Secret Service and economic performance — that is, everyone really does believe that the Secret Service has nothing to do with economic performance.

And notice this blatantly dishonest language quoted from 'C's' comment above regarding tax reductions for the rich (emphasis added) —
You can be against policies that give money to the rich ...
This is a typical propaganda technique — conflating the reduction of a tax payment from individuals (the Bush tax cuts he mentioned), with a gift from others to those individuals.   Obviously, this is not what is happening when tax rates are reduced.

And 'C's' closing line is absolutely comical.   In a comment denying that U.S. Presidents are important to the U.S. economy, 'C' closes by saying that a larger stimulus would have likely been helpful.   As if the sitting U.S. President has no effect on a government stimulus.

And in true Krugman fashion (demonstrating your own accusation), 'C', like many other comment posters on Krugman's blog, begins with an accusation regarding 'not doing your homework', and then proceeds to make a number of nonsensical and false statements, indicating that he needs to do a lot more homework.   Now that is a Krugman sycophant.

Here is another small sample of the same kind of nonsense from another Krugman lackey, 'Skeptic' --

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/12/30/presidents-and-the-economy/#permid=17086922

Comment to Krugman's 'Presidents and the Economy', December 2015


'Skeptic' might try following his own recommendation, by reading about where the expression 'Hooverville' came from, for just one example from history that directly contradicts his view, before he admonishes others to 'try reading history'.

And notice what The New York Times public editor had to say about Krugman back in 2005 — how dishonest do you think Krugman had to be before the paper's own ombudsman decided to call him on it publicly (in this polite way) ? --

http://www.nytimes.com/ref/weekinreview/okrent-bio.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/22/weekinreview/13-things-i-meant-to-write-about-but-never-did.html

13 Things I Meant to Write About but Never Did
DANIEL OKRENT   MAY 22, 2005
...
2. Op-Ed columnist Paul Krugman has the disturbing habit of shaping, slicing and selectively citing numbers in a fashion that pleases his acolytes but leaves him open to substantive assaults.  Maureen Dowd was still writing that Alberto R. Gonzales "called the Geneva Conventions 'quaint' " nearly two months after a correction in the news pages noted that Gonzales had specifically applied the term to Geneva provisions about commissary privileges, athletic uniforms and scientific instruments.  Before his retirement in January, William Safire vexed me with his chronic assertion of clear links between Al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein, based on evidence only he seemed to possess.

No one deserves the personal vituperation that regularly comes Dowd's way, and some of Krugman's enemies are every bit as ideological (and consequently unfair) as he is.  But that doesn't mean that their boss, publisher Arthur O. Sulzberger Jr., shouldn't hold his columnists to higher standards.

I didn't give Krugman, Dowd or Safire the chance to respond before writing the last two paragraphs.  I decided to impersonate an opinion columnist.
...



The deception regarding the chart that Krugman presented in his blog post 'Obama The Job-Killer', is a perfect demonstration of what Daniel Okrent complained about in the quote above back in 2005.

Krugman's chart comparing job creation under Obama and Bush II seems to put Obama in a positive light, but in truth the chart proves the opposite of the praise that Krugman has given Obama.  It is true that during the Obama administration more jobs were added than were added during the Bush II administration, just as Krugman's chart shows — but job creation while Bush II was in office was the worst when compared with all of the presidential terms going back to Lyndon Johnson.   So there is no reason for Obama supporters to be praising 'The Obama Recovery', as Krugman has done, since job creation under the Obama administration only slightly edged out one of the worst periods on record, up until the economy collapsed at the end of the housing bubble at the end of the Bush II administration.

That is, job creation under the Obama administration has now, finally, significantly passed that of the Bush II administration, but only because the economy was collapsing at the end of the Bush II administration due to the housing bubble.   Faint praise for Obama.

Now, are you surprised that in Krugman's chart showing the change in private employment under Obama, that Krugma also included only the single U.S. Presidential term with the lowest growth in private employment going back to Lyndon Johnson, that is, of Bush II — rather than some other Presidential term that would indicate Krugman's past praise of 'Obamanomics' was false?   If you claim surprise at Krugman's obviously misleading comparison, then either you do not regularly read Krugman's writings (good for you!), or you are lying.   Krugman proudly and routinely displays his ignorant bias, so it is impossible to enjoy his writing without possessing the same ignorant bias.   A critical reader would immediately be suspect of a chart comparing only two U.S. Presidents regarding something as general as changes in private employment, especially when the data for many U.S. Presidents is typically presented together, indicating that it probably took extra effort to compare two U.S. Presidents in isolation, as Krugman did in his previous blog post comparing Obama with Bush II.   But certainly no honest reader familiar with Krugman's style, would expect him to create any content that would seriously critique a big government politician like Obama (except perhaps to say that he were not big government enough).

But all of this misses the obvious point that government as a whole has a massive effect on the economy — it is silly to say that a U.S. President is largely responsible for economic performance (as Krugman has often done, his dishonest claim to the contrary notwithstanding), just as it would be silly to say the same of a single U.S. Senator — obviously, the actual laws that are enforced are what matters, and individuals can be crucial to the passage of a certain law, but some kind of consensus is always necessary.

Here is a more honest account of 'The Obama Recovery', and the partial control that U.S. Presidents have over the economy.  Of course, Krugman and his sycophants will never acknowledge any of this --

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/12/05/in-ranking-presidents-by-job-creation-obama-still-lags/

In Ranking Presidents by Job Creation, Obama Still Lags
JOSH ZUMBRUN   Dec 5, 2014

President Barack Obama welcomed today’s jobs report, noting that the economy has now created 10.9 million jobs over the past 57 months.  This streak of growth is improving the net job creation over which Mr. Obama has presided, though among the last 10 presidents, Mr. Obama still ranks sixth in terms of job creation.
The economy has 5.7 million more jobs today than when Mr. Obama took office in January of 2009.  That puts his total job creation ahead of presidents John Kennedy, Gerald Ford, and George H.W. Bush, who each served one term or less.  It also puts him well ahead of President George W. Bush, whose final year in office also comprised the beginning to the longest and deepest recession since the Great Depression.

As we have noted before, evaluating the job creation during Mr. Obama’s presidency is skewed by the recession that was already underway when he took office.  The same challenge arises in looking at the presidency of Ronald Reagan, who took office just as the economy plunged into a deep recession. President Bill Clinton, by contrast, benefited from taking office as the economy had just begun to snap back from a recession.
...

A range of caveats apply. The president has, at best, only partial control over the course of the economy, especially during his early months in office. The timing of when recessions strike has a key influence on how presidents rank, and economists don’t really believe that presidential policies are the primary cause of sharp economic downturns. Congress can thwart good legislation or pass bad legislation. The Federal Reserve, many members of which were appointed by the previous guy, may make policy errors or set great policy. Demographics and international economic conditions drive much of the economy too.
...


Sunday, June 28, 2015

Krugman's Obviously False Debt Spin

In the past, I've written numerous posts in response to Paul Krugman's nonsensical writing, in an attempt to expose him as a charlatan.   Because Krugman is a devout Keynesian, he believes that government spending is always an unqualified positive, and an easy solution to all economic problems.

If you thank that is an exaggeration, watch Krugman in this interview from August, 2011, where he parrots Keynes in supporting government stimulus spending, with his explicit statement that the spending be on something that wastes resources and helps no one — that is, a military buildup for a fictitious alien invasion --

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhMAV9VLvHA
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/09/the-moral-equivalent-of-space-aliens/
If we discovered that, you know, space aliens were planning to attack and we needed a massive buildup to counter the space alien threat and really inflation and budget deficits took secondary place to that, this slump would be over in 18 months.  And then if we discovered, oops, we made a mistake, there aren’t any aliens, we’d be better [off].


Paul Krugman's blog is dominated by content like the statement quoted above, which makes it little more than an endless stream of fallacies.   Here is another typical example, from a Krugman post in February, 2015, where Krugman attempts to dismiss concerns about the mounting U.S. public debt --

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/02/06/debt-is-money-we-owe-to-ourselves/

Debt Is Money We Owe To Ourselves
Paul Krugman   FEBRUARY 6, 2015 7:32 AM
Antonio Fatas, commenting on recent work on deleveraging or the lack thereof, emphasizes one of my favorite points: no, debt does not mean that we’re stealing from future generations. Globally, and for the most part even within countries, a rise in debt isn’t an indication that we’re living beyond our means, because as Fatas puts it, one person’s debt is another person’s asset; or as I equivalently put it, debt is money we owe to ourselves — an obviously true statement that, I have discovered, has the power to induce blinding rage in many people.

Think about the history shown in the chart above. Britain did not emerge impoverished from the Napoleonic Wars; the government ended up with a lot of debt, but the counterpart of this debt was that the British propertied classes owned a lot of consols.

More than that, as Fatas points out, rising debt could be a good sign. Think of my little two-classes model of debt, where some people are less patient than others — perhaps (to step outside the model a bit) because they have better investment opportunities. Moving from a very limited financial system that doesn’t allow much debt to a somewhat more open-minded system should, in that case, be good for growth and welfare.

The problem with private debt is that we have good reason to believe that in very wide-open financial systems people get irrationally exuberant, lending and borrowing to an extent that they eventually realize was excessive — and that there are huge negative externalities when everyone tries to deleverage at once. This is a very big problem, but it’s not about generalized excess consumption.

And the problems with public debt are also mainly about possible instability rather than “borrowing from our children”. The rhetoric of fiscal debates has been, for the most part, nonsense.



Krugman's blog post quoted above hardly deserves comment — since it is so poorly written, the fallacies it contains should be obvious to almost anyone.

First, the title is obviously false — it is true that the largest portion of the U.S. public debt is held by government agencies (mainly Social Security), but a large portion of the U.S. debt is held by foreign nations.   Here is part of a table from the U.S. Treasury's June 2015 Bulletin, showing the estimated ownership of U.S. Treasury Securities, from 2010 through March 2015.  Notice that this table shows that 'foreign and international' owners (column 11) were holding about 34% of the total U.S. public debt in December of 2104 --

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/treasury-bulletin/b2015-2.pdf   (p. 43)
https://web.archive.org/web/.../https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/treasury-bulletin/b2015-2.pdf

Table of Estimated Ownership of U.S. Treasury Securities, June 2015


And notice that China and Japan alone were holding over 13% of the U.S. public debt in March of 2015 --

http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt

Top Two Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasury Securities, 2014 - 2015


But regardless of the breakdown of the ownership of the U.S. public debt, Krugman's statement that 'debt is money we owe to ourselves — an obviously true statement',  is, rather, an obviously false statement.   There is nothing about government debt in general that entails 'taxpayers owing it to themselves'.   At a minimum, this would mean that all government debt securities are purchased by the government with tax revenue.   This was never true, and it certainly is not true now.

But even more importantly, notice that even in the case of the Social Security Administration's past purchase of government treasuries with surplus payroll deductions — as an example of 'owing it to ourselves' — we do not 'owe it to ourselves', since current beneficiaries of government programs like Social Security and Medicare will not pay, nor will they even suffer any consequences of, the growing debt that is being generated in part to pay for their benefits — obviously, future taxpayers will, since current taxpayers will not live long enough.

So even under the assumption that the phrase 'owing it to ourselves'  is simply meant to indicate government debt that was purchased with tax revenue, and so is held by government agencies (i.e. debt owned by U.S. taxpayers), that debt will still affect future taxpayers more than current taxpayers (especially given future interest rate increases).   In short, Krugman's phrase — 'debt is money we owe to ourselves' — is a euphemism to disguise the unequal impacts of the debt between current and future taxpayers.

So how is it possible to justify Krugman's claim: 'no, debt does not mean that we’re stealing from future generations',  when we know that the growing debt is certainly not helping future generations?

But what is truly perversely fascinating in this nonsensical 'we owe money to ourselves'  talk, is that anyone would take this seriously — never mind a Nobel laureate economist.

I wrote about the absurdity of pretending you owe yourself money last year in this post —
     http://maxautonomy.blogspot.com/2014/06/pretending-you-owe-yourself-hazard.html

In Krugman's blog post quoted above, he mentions that one person's debt is another person's asset — yes, but this is only true if there really are two different people.  Your debt is not also your asset.   So making the claim that your debt is your largest asset, is exactly the same as saying 'I'm broke'.   All debt is a claim against future earnings, and government debt is a claim on the future earnings of taxpayers, regardless of the owner of that government debt.   This is what makes the commonly heard comment that the Social Security 'trust fund' pays benefits so absurd — all the government 'trusts' that hold U.S. Treasuries are simply promises to collect future taxes (i.e. they are claims on future tax receipts), and so future taxpayers must pay, if those securities are ever to be redeemed in order to pay some government expense, like Social Security or Medicare benefit payments.

It is hard to believe that it is not obvious to people that they cannot also treat their debt as an asset, and that it should require an explanation as to why, but it must, since it is repeated ad nauseam — even by a Nobel laureate.

Making the claim that we 'owe it to ourselves'  does nothing to mitigate a debt problem.  The U.S. government 'trust funds' are an unfunded liability of U.S. taxpayers — that is, they are promises to collect payments from future taxpayers.   And notice that this simple fact — which is determined by the U.S. Treasury securities held by the trusts (that's just how they work) — stands in direct contradiction to Krugman's claim that 'debt does not mean that we’re stealing from future generations'.   The larger the U.S. debt grows — including the so-called 'trusts' — the larger the burden that will be borne by future taxpayers.

Here are more details on how the government trusts are a liability to U.S. taxpayers.  If you are a U.S. taxpayer, you pay for the U.S. trust funds, they do not pay for you —
     http://maxautonomy.blogspot.com/2015/05/the-trust-fund-tolls-for-thee.html

And notice the glaring contradiction in Krugman's comment that private lenders alone have a tendency to become 'irrationally exuberant'.   I suppose this is his shorthand code to readers who wish to pretend that government requirements had nothing to do with the financial crisis of the Great Recession.   This notion that governments are consistently rational and responsible, in contrast to the private sector, is so utterly ridiculous there is no reason to comment on it.   Anyone who responds affirmatively to such a comment is simply expressing a blindness driven by a biased agenda.   The crises, strife, and misery, caused directly by the world's governments are too widely well known to be worthy of mention.

To those who would now launch into a diatribe about the obvious harm that has been caused by private companies (no argument here), I would only say that your moral compass and your ability to measure harm are a bit off.   Good luck.

Of course, this is consistent with Krugman's mantra that all government spending has some magical ability to create well being, whereas private sector spending or saving does not.  That Krugman would be comfortable in repeating such a ridiculous claim, as well as 'Debt Is Money We Owe To Ourselves', is a testament to how insulated he is from any real criticism.

So much for the Nobel prize.